VOL. 4, NO. 253 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2026 PRICE: 1% OR 99%, DEPENDS

The Wildest.Bet Gazette

All the odds that are fit to print · Kalshi & Polymarket, surveilled around the clock

🗳️ 2026 ELECTIONS 📉 FED RATE ODDS
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SORT

Biggest Movers This Week

SEVEN-DAY SWINGS · CAUSES INCLUDED, REGRETTABLY Tap a mover for the full report.

Whale Watch

THE LEADERBOARD OF QUESTIONABLE CONVICTION Aliases as they appear on-chain. Shame as reported.
01 POLYMARKET Fredi9999 Trump 2024, spread across many accounts Largest bet in platform history. A French trader who said he did it for the forecasting science. STAKE $30M P/L +$48M RETIRED LEGEND
02 POLYMARKET les_bleus_whale France to win the World Cup Position reportedly hedged with "being French." STAKE $2.1M P/L PENDING SWEATING SUNDAY
03 KALSHI NothingEverHappens NO on every doomsday market listed Earns 2–3% a quarter betting the world stays boring. So far: correct. STAKE $890K P/L +$310K YTD GRINDING
04 POLYMARKET GreenlandGuy YES, US acquires Greenland Down but unbothered. Cites "the vibes in Nuuk." STAKE $100K P/L −$61K HOLDING
05 POLYMARKET TheoryOfEverything YES, Trump claims he invented ChatGPT The Reddit whale. "At 10 cents I only need 10% to break even." STAKE $12K @ 8–15¢ P/L PENDING POSTING THESIS
06 POLYMARKET DisclosureDAO Coordinated YES, alien confirmation A Discord buying campaign. Activism, it turns out, has carrying costs. STAKE $140K (pooled) P/L −$38K STILL BELIEVING

The Scandal Sheet

INSIDER TRADING BLOTTER · ALL CASES REAL · ALLEGEDLY Two DOJ prosecutions and counting.
01 KALSHI SETTLEMENT TALKS

The Teleprompter Operator

The President’s longtime teleprompter operator allegedly cleaned up on "mention markets" — bets on which words the President would say. His edge: he had the script.
THE TAKE ~$100K
Now on unpaid leave. The White House memo says please stop.
02 POLYMARKET DOJ CASE

The Google Employee

Used confidential search-trend data to trade ahead of official announcements with near-perfect precision. The precision was the tell.
THE TAKE $1M+ / 24 HRS
The market noticed before compliance did.
03 POLYMARKET DOJ CASE

The Special Forces Soldier

Federal prosecutors say a U.S. special forces soldier traded on classified information about Venezuela operations.
THE TAKE CLASSIFIED
Op-sec: immaculate. Trade-sec: less so.
04 KALSHI UNDER INVESTIGATION

George Santos, Again

Investigators say he pumped a market by claiming he’d attend the 2026 State of the Union, took the NO side, then simply didn’t show up.
THE TAKE UNDISCLOSED
The rare pump-and-dump where the asset was himself.
05 POLYMARKET INDICTED

The Air Force Officers

Israeli Air Force officers indicted for betting on the timing of strikes on Iran using inside military knowledge. The related strike market did $529M in volume.
THE TAKE UNDISCLOSED
The one order book you’d hope stays thin.

The Crackdown Map

WHERE THE FUN IS BEING OUTLAWED · SEPTEMBER 2026 Hover a state. Statuses approximate; the lawsuits are not.
STATE FELONY 1 state
COURT INJUNCTION 3 states
BLOCKED / BANNED 14 states
FORMAL WARNING 11 states
STILL TRADING everywhere else
18 states have blocked or banned prediction markets under gambling law.
30+ lawsuits pending. Lawyers describe "legal limbo," happily, per billable hour.
1 state felony statute (Minnesota, effective Aug 1). Operating a market, not losing on one.
2 DOJ insider-trading prosecutions. See blotter, below.