Fed Rate Decision Odds: Will the Fed Cut, Hold, or Hike?
Live, market-implied odds for the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates — blended from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt and refreshed every few minutes. Read every price as a probability, not a prediction.
Live Fed rate markets
Each price is the latest synced value, read as an implied probability. Tap a market for the full report.
How prediction markets price a Fed decision
Ahead of every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, traders bet on exactly one thing: what the Fed will do to its benchmark interest rate. Each contract above pays out based on a specific outcome — a 25 basis-point cut, a hold, a hike — so its price settles near the market’s estimate of that outcome’s probability. A contract trading at 70% means the market puts roughly a 70% chance on that move.
It is the same logic behind fed funds futures and the widely watched CME FedWatch tool, just drawn from event-market venues. Because money is on the line and prices update continuously, the odds react to every inflation print, jobs report, and speech — often faster than economists can revise a forecast.
Cut, hold, or hike — and what “bps” means
The Fed sets a target range for the federal funds rate and moves it in increments measured in basis points. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 bps = 0.25% and 50 bps = 0.50%. A “cut” lowers the range to ease policy; a “hike” raises it to tighten; a “hold” leaves it unchanged. Most meetings resolve to a hold or a single 25 bps move, which is why the markets above cluster around those outcomes.
How we build the consensus
We sync live prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt on our own server every few minutes, so your browser never talks to the exchanges directly. The list above pulls the currently trading Fed and federal-funds contracts and shows each as an implied probability. Nothing is simulated — every number traces back to a real, open market. This is market data, not financial advice. Obviously.
2026 FOMC meeting calendar
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings a year. The rate decision is announced on the second day at 2:00 p.m. ET; the meetings marked below also include the Summary of Economic Projections (the “dot plot”).
- Jan 27–28
- Mar 17–18 • dot plot
- Apr 28–29
- Jun 16–17 • dot plot
- Jul 28–29
- Sep 15–16 • dot plot ← next up
- Oct 27–28
- Dec 8–9 • dot plot
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Fed meeting?
The FOMC meets eight times in 2026. The remaining rate decisions this year are announced on September 16, October 28, and December 9, each at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day of the meeting. The Rate Watch box on this page always shows the next one.
Will the Fed cut interest rates in 2026?
That is exactly what the markets above are pricing. Rather than a fixed forecast, the live odds show the probability traders assign to a cut, hold, or hike at the next meeting, updated every few minutes. Check the tracker for the current number.
What does 25 bps or 50 bps mean?
A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. So 25 bps is a 0.25% change and 50 bps is a 0.50% change. The Fed usually moves in 25 bps steps, so most contracts ask whether it will cut or hike by that amount.
What is the current federal funds rate?
As of the July 2026 meeting, the FOMC target range for the federal funds rate was 3.50% to 3.75%. Where it goes next is what the live markets above estimate.
How do these odds compare to CME FedWatch?
FedWatch derives probabilities from fed funds futures; our tracker derives them from event-market contracts on Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. Both are market-based estimates of the same decision, so they usually move together, though exact numbers can differ by venue.